Weekly Technical Analysis Forecast – April 21, 2025
EUR/USD is climbing again after bouncing off 1.1270 over the 30-SMA, confirming it as support. The bullish bias remains intact after the mid-April surge with the uptrend gaining momentum after a break above 1.1130, forming a higher high. However, a bearish RSI divergence has emerged with a lower high, while price moved higher, suggesting momentum is weakening, and buyers may need a pause to regroup. 1.1520 resistance may cap the upside in the near term, and consolidation between current levels and 1.1520 is likely. A breakout would confirm fresh upside and strengthen the bullish outlook, while failure to do so could trigger a pullback towards 1.1200.
In early trading this morning, EURUSD broke above the 1.1500 level with force. Closing above this level will indicate more strength for the Euro against the USD.
While overall sentiment remains upbeat, gold may witness further fluctuation on the intraday levels, attempting to gather the gains of its previous rises. In the near term, consolidation above the 30-SMA at 3270 is likely to leave the rally some breathing room, while the RSI drops back into neutral territory. Buying interests can be expected between said level and 3200 from the previous higher low, making it an important demand zone. A bounce above 3350 would serve as a clear signal for continued bullish momentum and send the price to 3400. On the downside, a bearish breakout would trigger broader profit-taking and expose 3200. As gold continued its upward movements in early trading today, we’re less than $20 away from the psychological level of $3,400.
AUD/USD is pulling back towards support-turned-resistance near 0.6450 following a steep rally, but the bullish bias remains intact, as the price holds above the SMA and the RSI stays above 50. The recent reversal triggered a wave of profit-taking by the short side, which marked the end of the previous downtrend and initiated a sharp breakout above the 0.6200 resistance. As the rally progressed, the upward momentum began to slow, with price action forming a shallower slope approaching the 0.6470. A decisive bullish break would confirm continued strength and extend the climb. Otherwise, 0.6200 could see a retest with 0.5930 as critical support on the downside.
GBP/USD has extended its bullish run, breaking above the 1.3200 ceiling and forming a higher high above the 30-SMA, reinforcing the bullish bias. However, bullish exhaustion is setting in – evident from smaller candlestick bodies and a bearish RSI divergence: higher high in the price but lower high in the indicator. Buyers’ profit-taking could lead to a pullback towards the 1.3100-1.3160 zone, potentially triggering a consolidation in the short run. But as long as the pair holds above the swing low of 1.2710, the mood would remain bullish and renewed momentum may carry cable to last September’s high of 1.3430.
