Weekly Fundamental Analysis Forecast – April 28, 2025
Gold remains supported and the US dollar under pressure as Asian exporters – particularly South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, and Thailand – are pushing for interim trade agreements with the US ahead of the July tariff deadline, seeking to avoid punitive levies as high as 46%. Negotiations are progressing faster in Asia than in Europe or North America, where talks remain in the exploratory stage. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated a potential “agreement of understanding” with South Korea could be reached as soon as this week, with broader momentum expected from other key Asian partners. Given the compressed timeline, expectations are centered on limited tariff relief deals rather than full-scale trade agreements. For the coming week markets will focus on concrete announcements from US-South Korea talks, signals of similar progress with Japan and Vietnam, and any further clarity on Washington’s evolving trade strategy – especially as China talks remain deadlocked.
Earnings season is well underway this week, with four members of the Magnificent 7 – Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), and Amazon (AMZN) – set to report. Investor focus will be twofold: core operating performance and management commentary regarding escalating US-China trade tensions. Policy uncertainty remains elevated following President Donald Trump’s recent tariff actions. While direct impacts on the tech sector have been partially mitigated – notably through exemptions for smartphones and select electronics – second-order effects, including supply chain disruptions and softer consumer demand, could emerge over the medium term. Apple, in particular, is positioned to outperform peers tactically, having secured tariff relief on critical product lines. However, headline risk remains material, and any guidance revisions or cautious commentary on China exposure could pressure valuations across the broader sector, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq index for that matter.
Traders await the next round in Europe after the US and Iran reported progress in negotiations over the nuclear program, following what officials described as more constructive discussions. Though both sides acknowledged that significant challenges remain. President Trump reiterated a preference for a diplomatic resolution, stating he would favor a deal over military escalation, although he left open the option for Israel to act independently. Diplomatic momentum appears to be building, with Trump expressing openness to a direct meeting with Iranian leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Oil prices could stay under pressure as cautious optimism builds up.
